Thursday, January 10, 2008

Kenyan crisis hammers tourism sector
By Peter Greste
BBC News, Nairobi

Mombasa beach
Mombasa's beaches are deserted
Sally Mullens stared out across the azure blue channel that separates the coastal village of Shimoni from the island of Wasini white beach just north of Mombasa.

As the owner of Charlie Claws, a tour company that runs diving and snorkelling trips along the spectacular coastline, she is responsible for about one hundred local staff, and she is deeply concerned.

"I just don't know what we'll do," she says "We've already had to lay off about half of our staff, and almost all the other hotels and resorts have had to do the same.

"Normally we'd expect about a hundred tourists a day for this time of the year. Tomorrow we're down to 12."

Her fears stem not from any risk of violence or looting, but from the potentially catastrophic collapse in tourism that looms as a result of Kenya's ongoing political crisis.

Cancellations for her business, as well as most others along the waterfront and for those who run wildlife safaris in the interior, have been coming thick and fast, despite the fact that no tourists have so far been caught up in the troubles.

"Just look at this," she says. "The conditions are perfect. If it weren't for the news reports, we wouldn't know that anything was wrong in other parts of the country.

""But all the publicity and the travel advisories have really hit us hard. If only they'd make a more realistic assessment of the risk to tourists, we'd be fine."

Long-term impact

Tourism is easily Kenya's biggest foreign currency earner, bringing in an estimated $1bn (£500m) per year - more than horticulture and tea exports combined.


Kenyans are an incredibly industrious and entrepreneurial people. They've recovered from big hits in the past, and they'll do so again, but this is going to be very difficult for a while to come
Robert Shaw, economist

It has also been one of the economy's most spectacular performers, with visitor numbers doubling over the past three years.

But it is a notoriously fickle industry. Already, tourism is the industry most dramatically affected by the recent crisis, and analysts warn it could take years to recover.

"Tourism is dead," says Tasneem Adamji, chair of the Kenyan Association of Tour Operators (KATO) for the coast region.

"The coast depends on charter flights for most of its tourists. This week, they've lost 5,400 seats on those flights mostly from Europe. That represents an 85% loss on their usual numbers.

This, she adds, means "20,000 direct job losses are imminent along the coast between now and March" so that when indirect jobs are included the total job losses will reach 100,000.

Given that each employed Kenyan feeds 10 people, the tourism industry's difficulty could affect at least a million people, KATO estimates.

"The dilemma for us is that there has not been a single incident involving tourists since the whole crisis began, but in ten days, we've undone all the hard work of the past six or seven years to recover from the last collapse in tourism," says Ms Adamji.

Analysts, including Professor Terry Ryan, believe the entire economy is staring at a recession, and this after growing at a blistering 7% last year.

In an interview with the Business Daily newspaper, he said he would "expect the economic growth rate to scale down to between 2% and 4.5%, and that is assuming that the situation returns to normalcy soon."

Nervous investors

Already, Kenya's finance minister estimates that the economy has lost $1bn since the post-election crisis began on 28 December, and industries like transport and agriculture and financial services are still struggling to get back on their feet.

Another economist, Robert Shaw, believes one of the biggest problems has been the loss of business and investor confidence.

Kenya tourists
Tourists have stopped coming to Kenya

"Things might be calmer now," he says. "But parliament is going to be stormy for the foreseeable future, and there is no sustainable solution anywhere on the horizon.

"Investors are all incredibly nervous," he adds. "The last thing they want is instability, and that's exactly what we have right now."

Part of the problem has been the focus of opposition anger on President Kibaki's Kikuyu community.

The Kikuyu dominate economic life in Kenya, but many of their businesses have been burned, and farmers driven from their properties in the post-election violence.

"The movement of Kikuyus takes a lot of the dynamism out of the economy," Mr Shaw says.

Vital link

And it is not just Kenya that is suffering as a result. No fewer than five neighbouring states channel their exports and imports through the Kenyan port of Mombasa on the Indian Ocean.

In a statement, the World Bank says a quarter of the gross domestic product of Uganda and Rwanda and a third of Burndi's pass through Kenya, including essential commodities.

South Sudan, the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and northern Tanzania also lean heavily on Kenya both for trans-shipments and imports of essentials such as maize.

Although road transport has returned to normal across much of the country, ongoing instability in the west of the country near the Ugandan border continues to make trucking dangerous, and shortages of fuel and other essentials are continuing inside Uganda.

That is already driving up inflation across the region.

Tough times ahead

The government insists it has taken control of the situation. On Tuesday afternoon, President Kibaki announced half of his cabinet, including re-appointing his finance minister Amos Kimunya, who told the BBC that what investors wanted was continuity and stability, and that, he insisted, is what the president has delivered.

But economic analyst Mr Shaw disagrees.

"They're pretending that everything's normal, but it isn't," he says.

"This is really the lull before the storm, whether it's a political storm or more than that.

"The fundamental fault lines, which caused the troubles in the first place, are still there.

"Kenyans are an incredibly industrious and entrepreneurial people. They've recovered from big hits in the past, and they'll do so again, but this is going to be very difficult for a while to come."

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7179577.stm

Monday, January 07, 2008

You absolutely have to read this. It is so damning!

January 7, 2008

OPINIONS & COMMENTARIES

LETTER TO A KAMPALA FRIEND | Muniini K. Mulera


What a deceptive world where a spade is called a big spoon!
Dear Tingasiga: We live in an era of linguistic deception; of calling things what they are not; of not calling things what they are.
People do not die. They pass away. A country’s president, a certified pathological liar, does not tell lies. He misspeaks. He misrepresents the truth. A government minister does not steal public funds.He misappropriates them. He is not a thief or robber. He is corrupt.

Listen to the barrage of painfully deceptive words in reference to the disaster that was Kenya’s presidential election ten days ago. Scribes and diplomats alike report that the Kenyan presidential election was “flawed”; it was marred by “irregularities,” “malpractices” and “loopholes” in the tallying of the votes.
These are soft words that make it sound like innocuous incompetence; mischief by naughty politicians and their agents; nothing more than that. I refuse to engage in such diplomatic circumlocution in this deceptive intellectual tip-toeing around matters that demand calling a spade a spade.

What happened in Kenya was grand thieving, daylight robbery by political bandits who care less about Kenya than they do about their overflowing pockets and egos. To avoid ambiguity, Tingasiga, let us record for posterity that the Kenyan presidential election of December 27, 2007 was stolen by Emilio Stanley Mwai Kibaki, in a civil-paramilitary coup that began long before the millions of hopeful Kenyan voters went to the polls to elect their new president, Raila Amolo Odinga.

Yes, that’s right. The elected president of Kenya is the son of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, he who wrote, 40 years ago, Not Yet Uhuru, a classic treatise whose title is true today as it was all those many years ago. That is why it is a great insult to the Kenyan people to ask their chosen leader, Raila Odinga, to join Kibaki, the loser who stole the throne, in a so-called government of national unity (GNU). It is akin to asking a man to return to his own house, to join those who have robbed and raped his house and spouse in a fellowship dance of death.

No, the Kenyan people have rejected Kibaki, along with most of his ministers and parliamentary candidates. To force him onto them, no matter what justification, is to annul their democratic and human rights. Stay the course Raila. Say no to the Americans and the British and whoever else is afraid to call a spade a spade.

A week ago I, like most of the world, laboured under the view that Kenya’s ruling classes and their Electoral Commission (ECK) were committed to democracy. Today, I stand disabused of this illusion, not only by the confessions of ECK Chairman Samuel Kivuitu; and not only by careful analysis of the published electoral results, but by the most extraordinary tales I have heard first hand from sources that were right at the centre of the Kibaki coup.

According to my sources, with whom I have spoken at length by telephone, the events of last week were a culmination of a well-calculated and brilliantly executed plot that was hatched at least two years ago to keep Kibaki in power. The Kenyan referendum of 2005, which was won by Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), left no doubt in the Kibaki Court that there was little hope of winning the presidential election of 2007.

My sources have confirmed as true the allegations by Raila Odinga that a combined force of the Administration Police (AP) headed by Commandant Kinuthia Mbugua, members of the National Security Intelligence Service (NSIS) led by Director General Michael Gichangi, and sections of the Kenya Armed Forces, led by Lt. Gen. Julius Karangi, the Deputy Chief of the General Staff (CGS) swung into action to sabotage the democratic hopes and rights of Kenyans. My sources told me that the Administration Police, very loyal to Kibaki, was drilled in election rigging and funds from the security services were used to buy electoral clerks and returning officers of the ECK.
Above all, “advance marking” of presidential ballots were embarked on by six AP officers, allegedly headed by one Jabel Munene.

According to my sources, by election day, pre-marked ballots giving Kibaki a huge lead over Odinga had been transported to many polling stations across the country, carried there in 56 buses that also ferried 3,500 AP officers who had shed their police uniforms in exchange for ECK polling agents’ and returning officers’ badges.
The AP officers-cum-polling agents who went to Odinga’s home province of Nyanza were attacked and forced to retreat by the locals. They had taken the precaution of rigging the Nyanza ballots in favour of Odinga to make their voting patterns appear “genuine.”

Furthermore, where they inflated the numbers for Kibaki, they made sure they inflated Raila’s numbers, but to a lesser degree of course. To be sure of “victory” they created new polling stations, complete with ballot-filled boxes that gave Kibaki decisive “wins” over Odinga. This ballot stuffing and substitution of fake “ballot boxes” for the official ones into which Kenyans cast their votes by the millions, is the reason why Kibaki and his courtiers have been calling for a recount.

But that is also why Odinga and the ODM, fully aware of the entire anatomy of the robbery, have rejected the idea of a recount. They are right. What Kenyans need is a fresh election, conducted and supervised by a team from the United Nations and from a select group of truly democratic members of the African Union .

Meanwhile, as the world continues to dispense its advice to the Kenyan leaders and citizens, we should all meditate upon this secret brief, which was written by the Analysis and Production Division of the NSIS, and sent to President Kibaki on December 29, 2007: “Any announcement which would not favour Raila Odinga is going to be a source of anarchy in the country.”

Kibaki ignored the advice of his intelligence agents. Rivers of blood now flow in what was supposedly an island of stability.

http://www.monitor.co.ug/artman/publish/muniini/What_a_deceptive_world_where_a_spade_is_called_a_big_spoon.shtm
The article below is quite interesting and shows us how hasty decisions and actions as happened with our kenyan elections are truly foolhardy.


The hurried rush to madness

Published on January 6, 2008, 12:00 am

By Kap Kirwok

At times like these, we are lost for words. The events of the last week — the announcement of a winner of the presidential contest despite credible evidence of rigging, the hurried swearing in ceremony, the brutal suppression of public protest, the continuing unrest — leave me completely speechless.

Searching for suitable words to describe these events, and finding none in my shocked and dazed mind, I turned to the Merriam-Webster English dictionary.

Here is what I found. To thumb one’s nose. This is to express scorn or ridicule by placing the thumb on the nose and wiggling the fingers. That comes very close to describing what the powers that be are doing to Kenyans. At its most basic, it says I am going to lord it over you and there is nothing you can do.

But where does such an attitude come from?

To find an answer I searched under letter H and came across the word Hubris whose meaning is "excessive pride to the point that a mortal challenges the superiority of the gods; hubris is a fatal flaw, which is inevitably punished."

The last part of this sentence is little comfort to those who have lost loved ones.

Hubris comes much closer to the word I was looking for. Where does hubris derive its motive force? What is its taproot?

William Shakespeare in Measure for Measure nails it on the head with devastating poetic force: "But man, proud man, dressed in a little brief authority, most ignorant of what he’s most assured; his glassy essence, like an angry ape, plays such fantastic tricks before high heaven as make the angels weep." There you have your culprit — a little brief authority.

Excessive pride is, therefore, driven by a little brief authority or power. And there is no worse narcotic than power. Power is sweet, power and privilege even sweeter. It plays tricks on our minds. We start thinking we are superior to the gods. We become most assured of what we are most ignorant. We begin to believe we can get away with anything. We begin the grand march to methodical madness.

But hubris does not quite capture what we see displayed by our leaders. Delusion, a persistent false psychotic belief that is maintained despite indisputable evidence to the contrary, is the word I was really looking for; a total loss of contact with reality.

Much has been made of the claim that even the United States rigged its presidential elections in 2000; what is wrong with Kenya doing a little bit of rigging of its own? Unbelievable. Should we judge ourselves by the worst in others? If we must do so, let us remember the actual facts about that controversial election.

In the American system of presidential elections, the electoral vote system determines the winner, and Bush won this count, although Gore received more popular votes. Let us also remember that Gore demanded a manual recount of votes and that this was granted. Unfortunately, because of the lack of clarity in recount rules regarding the ballots considered validly cast, the actual recount was time barred. Florida law required all counties to certify their election returns to the Florida Secretary of State within seven days of the election.

As we recall, this time requirement was disputed all the way to the Supreme Court and decided in George Bush’s favour — all within four weeks.

In our own tallying controversy, would it have been too much to allow a re-tallying of presidential votes in all 210 constituencies, even if it took two more days of waiting? Why insist on the court system when we all know it can take more than five years to resolve?

The intoxicating mix of power, hubris and delusion was simply too overpowering to allow for humility and clarity of thought. Now see what we have reaped.

On December 9 in this column, I wrote "The readings on the tribal Hate-O-Meter are off the charts. The dial has been creeping up gradually since about early 2003 and is now inching dangerously towards the red zone."

Well, we are in the red zone. Tribal hatred just got a zillion times worse, and is likely to remain so for a long time to come. What a shame! What a real, crying shame! So now we know. Beneath the veneer of civility displayed by some of our leaders lies a terrible secret: They are hopelessly vain. Now everyone is calling for peace and sacrifice. We have suddenly discovered that Kenya is bigger than all of us.

Where will Kenya get clear-eyed leadership at a time when eyes are rapidly blurring under a torrent of tears? Cry, beloved Kenya, cry.

—The writer is based in the USA Strategybeyondprofit@gmail.com

http://www.eastandard.net/news/?id=1143979972&cid=190
A Canadian Expatriate's view: Kenyan elections 2007

The letter below was written by a Canadian expatriate who resides in Nairobi, Kenya. It reflects the profound sadness that many Kenyan people including foreigners who love the Kenyan country feel over the flawed elections of 2007.


Dear Friends and Family,

It is 1994. Tanzania. I stand upon the hill on which the Anglican church stands. I look around me, and let my eyes rest on the river Ngara below. The view is stunning. I wonder why there are so many crocodiles floating lazily in the river. I look again - and look away. They are not crocodiles; they are human bodies, floating down from Rwanda. I look again, hoping to see an end to these floating bodies. There is no end. More and more and more.... small, large, bloated, incomplete.... I turn, I run, I fall. I get up but stumble yet again. My mind cannot comprehend what my eyes have just seen, and my body fails me under the weight of it all.

It is 1997. South Africa. I attend several sessions of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. "I set the dog on your husband. Yes, he was carrying your son. He bit them both, yes. I did not restrain the dog. I was under orders. The dog, he was trained .... he tore.... he mauled.... I left them there. No help. They died there, both of them. Loss of blood. No, the bodies were not buried. You know the dogs, they had tasted human flesh. I am so sorry. God, I am so sorry." Archbishop Tutu, who is moderating the session, gets a bloody nose. The hearing must stop. It will continue tomorrow, and the next day, and the next.... I walk out, hurriedly. Outside it is raining.

It is 1998. Rwanda. I am on my way to Kivu. My host Liz stops the landrover. We get out to visit a church. The air feels cool. The winding road before and behind us is smooth as silk. A gentlemen appears and opens the church door and I walk in. My eyes take a few second to adjust to the dim lighting and then: skulls, hundreds and thousands of skulls. Some with cracks, some with missing halves, empty holes where eyes and minds, joy and sorrow, thoughts and feelings, love and hate once lived. The skulls are neatly arranged on tall tables. Underneath the tables is a huge assortment of many other bones. These once enabled a person to run, to dance, to dig, to live. Each skull representing a unique and special human being who will never be again.

A large pit forms in my stomach. Outside the church the sun is bright and the hills are lush and green. A teenage girl tells us what transpired in this part of Rwanda in 1994. I listen to her but I don't hear. All I see is the huge scar from the top of her head, across her eye, nose, mouth, neck and shoulder. Machete. Rape. She survived. Or did she?

It is 2007. Netherlands. It's a graveyard we are visiting - a memorial to the Canadians who fought against the Germans and her allies to free the Netherlands during World War II. White crosses, hundreds and thousands of white crosses, row upon row. They all blend into one, yet each stands unique. Each cross a unique young life snuffed out by war. Soldiers, all of them soldiers. Senseless. Or is it? Here lies ..... 19 years old...., 21 years, 25 years, 17 years. Died in 1943. Died in 1944. Died in February 1945 - three months before the liberation. Come, lets go. I have seen enough. Just war? Lest we forget... for the sake of freedom. For my sake, my freedom.

It is 2008. Kenya. The nation is on fire, literally on fire, from Kisumu to Eldoret, from Bungoma to Naivasha, from Nairobi to Mombasa. Yet since 1996, I travelled this beautiful country from East to West, from North to South, and at times alone. A flat tire at dusk near Webuye; an overheating radiator at Sigor; a tire blow out near Kisii; sick and vomiting in Dol dol; no accommodation available in Voi; my 8-month old baby feverish in Garsen; - I never felt threatened or scared. I always had good Samaritans lend a hand.

But for the past six days, in Nairobi, I have not ventured more than 10 km from my home. Even then I hurry back to the safety of the lawn behind my locked gate, and the home behind the concrete walls. I can't even get to my office. The nation is fighting for justice and truth. The election was stolen, rigged, dishonest. "Justice is driven back, and righteousness stands at a distance; truth has stumbled in the streets, honesty cannot enter. Truth is nowhere to be found, and whoever shuns evil becomes a prey. (Is. 59:14-15).

Democracy is at stake. Freedom is at stake. At least 164 people have been killed so far. Over 70,000 people have been displaced from their homes. How many more for the sake of truth and justice? How many more for my sake and for the sake of my children? Democracy and freedom are for the living, not for the dead. With Kenya going up in smoke, and her people dying and beaten - including our world renown athletes - what will remain to rebuild the nation upon? "I will not keep silent, I will not remain quiet, till her righteousness shines out like the dawn..." (Is. 62:1).

Anja Oussoren
2 January 2008
Kivuitu, you are to blame for the disaster that we in Kenya face now

I was shocked and utterly dismayed as I watched how Samuel Kivuitu, the Chairman of the Electoral Commission of Kenya conducted himself in the recently concluded elections. Even in the face of mounting evidence of election irregularities and the continued pleading from the opposition leaders to hold off reading the final results he completely ignored all these calls and went right ahead and announced the results thus leading to grave consequences for the Kenyan nation.

This was a great miscarriage of justice and a great contempt for the people of Kenya. Hundreds of precious Kenyan lives have been lost because of his carelessness and callousness. He needs to be held accountable for his actions.

Many Kenyans highly regarded Mr. Kivuitu and saw him as the best and most qualified person to provide leadership for the 2007 elections. But the actions we saw from him made many of us wonder whether he was operating from another reality. What a disappointment Mr. Kivuitu! You let down every single Kenyan.

Even though Mr. Kivuitu later admitted that he announced the results because of great pressure from other quarters, he should have used his moral and ethical judgement and refused to announce the results given the contentious nature of some of the election returns.

In due time he must be made to answer for his careless and grave actions that have led our lovely country Kenya on a downward spiral.
Dissapointing Kenyan Elections

Many Kenyans today are still reeling from the shock and profound dissapointment with the recently concluded elections. There is a sense of great frustration with the way the election outcomes were handled. Now the country is truly at a crossroad seeking the way forward as it tries to pull itself from the brink of total collapse. The writer below sums quite well the feelings of many Kenyans and that is the need for new elections!


We want fresh election and an end to impunity
Published on January 7, 2008, 12:00 am

By Ashish Shah

Over eight million Kenyans turned out in their highest numbers ever to vote on December 27. Whichever side of the political divide you sit on, a little over one week later, you are still being reminded why we all came out to vote.
We came out to vote because we are tired, angry and frustrated with the political patronage and impunity that pervades our beautiful nation, and we wanted to use our precious vote to make our concerns known. Little did we expect that it would be the same impunity and patronage that had spread like cancer into our own electoral commission.
Our votes have been manipulated because of impunity and patronage.
I have lost all faith in the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK). I cannot accept having ECK commissioners come out now, after they made decisions based on impunity and patronage, to call for an independent investigation.
Impunity and patronage allow for ECK commissioners to continue to sit in office despite presiding over gross irregularities. They allow politicians to suggest that we use the courts to resolve the crises when we know that our courts continue to be under the influence of that same impunity and patronage.
Impunity and patronage allow for a President to be sworn in without citizens of a nation celebrating. Impunity and patronage allow for brazen attempts to silence the media. They allow for a media house to be raided in full glare of cameras.
There is no shortcut to our future. We have lost faith in all our governing institutions and we cannot rely on them to resolve this impasse. I cannot allow for independent people to re-tally votes already manipulated by the ECK. I cannot trust courts to solve this impasse.
There are only two things I can trust: One is the power of the people to cast their vote under the supervision of an impartial and independent and perhaps foreign electoral institution so that people are given the opportunity to regain control of the destiny of this nation with non-violent means. In the absence of non-violent means which are in the control of citizens to vent their frustrations and opinions, both sides of the political divide will only contribute to escalating violence, peacelessness.
Worse still, what we are seeing in Kenya is a greater consolidation of power resulting in more patronage and more impunity, the very things more than eight million Kenyans came out to vote for and change.
Supporters for both sides of the political divide voted for radical change. That is why over 16 Cabinet ministers were felled. That is why we all turned out in such large numbers.
We must allow Kenyans to vent their frustration and their desire for a better country through the ballot box yet again if we want to prevent citizens from venting their frustration through violence in the streets.
But beyond a fresh presidential election, we must use the current impasse to redirect all out energies into revolutionising our Constitution, because it is our Constitution that continues to allow impunity and patronage to go unchecked and unabated. This impasse provides for an opportunity for all of us to focus our energy on the real issue — delivering a Constitution that will prevent against impunity and patronage.
The real issue is not about who comes to power. The real issue is that we are tired of those who exercise power given to them with impunity and patronage. We are tired of personality-based politics.
Without a new constitution, we will continue to hope for benevolent leadership. This is a risk I am no longer prepared to take. As we have seen over the last five years, even the most benevolent of leaders can preside over impunity and patronage.
Do not waste this impasse in violence against your fellow brothers and sisters. Use this impasse to rid Kenya of impunity and patronage by calls for fresh and independent elections and immediate constitutional reform that places power back into the hands of millions of voters, and away from the political elite.
The writer is an economic and social policy consultant.

http://www.eastandard.net/news/?id=1143980038